Kedia Advisory - Cottoncandy futures declined by 0.63% to settle at 53,730 amid profit booking, following prior gains driven by shrinking domestic crop estimates. The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has revised its 2024-25 production forecast downward by 4 lakh bales to 291.30 lakh bales (170 kg each), primarily due to lower output in Maharashtra. Total cotton supply till the end of March is estimated at 306.83 lakh bales, including 25 lakh bales of imports and opening stocks of 30.19 lakh bales.
However, stocks at the end of March were pegged at 127.83 lakh bales, of which 100.83 lakh bales are held by trade and government agencies. Notably, exports are expected to decline sharply to 16 lakh bales from 28.36 lakh bales last year, while imports are projected to more than double to 33 lakh bales due to tighter domestic supplies. Globally, the U.S. cotton balance sheet for 2024-25 showed a minor shift, with exports reduced by 100,000 bales and ending stocks increased accordingly. Meanwhile, global production is slightly lower, and textile mill use is down by 520,000 bales due to reduced demand from China and Indonesia.
Technically, Cottoncandy is under long liquidation as open interest dropped by 12.84% to 129 contracts. Support lies at 53,670, with further downside potential to 53,610. Resistance is seen at 53,820, and a breakout above could push prices toward 53,910.
