Kedia Advisory - Cottoncandy prices declined slightly by 0.13% to settle at ₹54,450 amid long liquidation, driven by a 7.5% drop in open interest, indicating weaker bullish sentiment. The downward price movement comes despite a marginal upward revision in India’s cotton production estimate for the 2024–25 season, which was raised to 291.35 lakh bales from 291.30 lakh bales due to increased output in Odisha. However, the market remains weighed down by sluggish consumption and trade activity. The Cotton Association of India (CAI) reduced its cotton consumption forecast by 8 lakh bales to 307 lakh bales, reflecting slower demand from the domestic textile industry.
Exports have also been revised downward by 1 lakh bale to 15 lakh bales, significantly below last year’s 28.36 lakh bales, indicating a 13.36 lakh bale drop in outbound shipments. On the other hand, imports remain robust at 33 lakh bales, with 27.5 lakh bales already brought in by April—nearly double the previous season’s figure. Consequently, ending stocks are projected to rise to 32.54 lakh bales by September 30, 2025, up from 30.19 lakh bales last season. Globally, the U.S. cotton balance sheet saw minor adjustments, including a 100,000-bale reduction in exports and a corresponding increase in ending stocks.
Technically, Cottoncandy is under pressure, with immediate support at ₹54,340 and further downside possible to ₹54,230. Resistance lies at ₹54,530, and a break above could see prices testing ₹54,610.
