The U.S. Energy Information Administration maintained its 2025 and 2026 forecasts for biodiesel, renewable diesel and “other biofuel” production, which includes sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), in its latest Short Term Energy Outlook, released May 6.
The EIA currently predicts biodiesel production will average 90,000 barrels per day in 2025, increasing to 100,000 barrels per day in 2026. Both forecasts were maintained from the April STEO. Biodiesel production averaged 110,000 barrels per day in 2024.
Net imports of biodiesel are expected to be zero this year and next year, unchanged from last month’s outlook. Net imports of biodiesel were at 20,000 barrels per day in 2024.
The EIA also maintained its forecasts that biodiesel consumption will average 90,000 barrels per day in 2025, expanding to 100,000 barrels per day in 2026. Biodiesel consumption was at 120,000 barrels per day last year.
Renewable diesel production averaged 210,000 barrels per day last year and is expected to increase to 220,000 barrels per day this year and 250,000 barrels per day next year. Both forecasts were unchanged from last month.
The EIA currently expects net imports of renewable diesel to be at zero in 2025 and 2026, compared to last month’s outlook of -10,000 barrels per day for each year. Net imports of renewable diesel averaged 30,0000 barrels per day in 2024.
The agency maintained its forecasts for 2025 and 2026 renewable diesel consumption at 210,000 barrels per day and 250,000 barrels per day, respectively. Renewable diesel consumption averaged 240,000 barrels per day in 2024.
The production of “other biofuels,” defined to include renewable heating oil; renewable jet fuel (SAF, alternative jet fuel and biojet); renewable naphtha, renewable gasoline; and other emerging biofuels in various stages of development and commercialization, is expected to average 50,000 barrels per day this year and 60,000 barrels per day next year, unchanged from the April STEO. Consumption of “other biofuels” was at 20,000 barrels per day last year.
Net imports of “other biofuels” are expected to remain at zero in 2025 and 2026, unchanged from last year and the April STEO. The outlook for “other biofuel” consumption is maintained at 50,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 60,000 barrels per day in 2026. “Other biofuel” consumption was at 20,000 barrels per day this year.
