The Cotton Association of India (CAI) projects a decline in India's cotton output to 301.75 lakh bales for 2024-25, down from 327.45 lakh bales last season. The drop is attributed to lower yields in Gujarat and northern states, though cotton quality remains high. Total (EPA:TTEF) cotton supply by January 2025 is estimated at 234.26 lakh bales, while domestic consumption is expected to reach 315 lakh bales. Exports are likely to decline to 17 lakh bales from 28.36 lakh bales last season. Meanwhile, the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) may procure over 100 lakh bales at the Minimum Support Price (MSP) to support farmers.
Key Highlights
# Cotton output for 2024-25 is estimated at 301.75 lakh bales.
# Lower yield in Gujarat, Punjab, and Haryana affects production.
# Exports projected to drop to 17 lakh bales from 28.36 lakh bales.
# Total cotton supply by January 2025 stands at 234.26 lakh bales.
# CCI likely to buy over 100 lakh bales at MSP.
Cotton prices have remained firm due to lower production estimates for the 2024-25 season. The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has projected an output of 301.75 lakh bales, marking a decline from the previous season's 327.45 lakh bales. The fall in production is attributed to reduced yields in Gujarat, Punjab, and Haryana. However, industry experts note that the quality of cotton remains strong, which could support demand in the domestic and export markets.
The decrease in production has added bullish sentiment to cotton prices. With domestic consumption projected at 315 lakh bales and exports expected to decline to 17 lakh bales from 28.36 lakh bales last season, supply constraints could keep prices elevated. The total cotton supply by January 2025 is estimated at 234.26 lakh bales, including fresh pressings of 188.07 lakh bales, imports of 16 lakh bales, and an opening stock of 30.19 lakh bales.
In other developments, the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) is expected to procure over 100 lakh bales at the Minimum Support Price (MSP) to stabilize market conditions and support farmers. Additionally, CAI has retained its domestic consumption estimate at 315 lakh bales. The lower exports and higher domestic consumption could lead to tighter supplies in the second half of the season, influencing price trends.
Finally
Cotton prices may remain firm as production declines and supply tightens. The market will closely watch CCI's MSP purchases and export trends to gauge price movements.
