KUALA LUMPUR: Palm oil fundamentals are expected to gradually improve in the coming months, supported by stronger Malaysian exports in the first quarter, the Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) said.
Additionally, Indonesia's front-loading of shipments ahead of the March export levy hike is projected to lower palm oil inventories in both countries.
The MPOC said Malaysia's palm oil output declined seasonally to 1.58 million tonnes in January, representing a 13.8 per cent drop compared with the previous month.
The council said exports rose to 1.48 million tonnes, an 11.4 per cent increase from December, representing the second-highest monthly export level in the past year.
The growth was mainly driven by stronger demand from India and Egypt, with shipments to India hitting a 15-month high and exports to Egypt reaching a 13-month peak.
The council said on the demand side, India is likely to increase its palm oil consumption again due to improved price competitiveness since late 2025.
"Palm oil consumption in India is forecast to rise by 800,000 tonnes in 2026, while soybean and sunflower oil consumption is expected to decline by a combined 400,000 tonnes.
"January 2026 data reflects this shift, with India's palm oil imports rising to a 4-month high, while soybean oil imports fall to an 11-month low," it said.
MPOC said that limited near-term supply, stronger demand from India, and firm US soybean oil prices are expected to support palm oil prices.
"However, ample global soybean supply and rising Chinese soybean oil exports may limit gains.
"Palm oil prices are therefore projected to consolidate within the range of RM4,000 – RM4,300 per tonne in March," it said.
