India’s sugar production is showing signs of improvement as 16 mills in western Uttar Pradesh continue cane crushing operations into May 2025. Although overall output fell 18.42% year-on-year to 25.43 million tonnes (mt) by mid-April, extended operations and improved recovery rates may help bridge the gap. ISMA noted enhanced cane availability and higher yields in UP, while Karnataka and Tamil Nadu (NSE:TNNP) are expected to add up to 0.5 mt during their special season. Approximately 3.5 mt sugar will be diverted for ethanol production this season. A positive 2025-26 outlook is backed by good monsoon-driven planting in Maharashtra and Karnataka and varietal replacement efforts in northern states.
Key Highlights
# UP mills extend operations, boosting sugar output hopes.
# Sugar output down 18.42% YoY to 25.43 mt by mid-April.
# 3.5 mt sugar to be diverted for ethanol production.
# Karnataka, Tamil Nadu to contribute 0.5 mt in special season.
# ISMA optimistic about 2025-26 due to better planting and yields.
India’s sugar sector has witnessed some price resilience amid falling output, thanks to extended crushing by 16 mills in western Uttar Pradesh. Prices, which were under pressure from an 18.42% year-on-year production drop to 25.43 million tonnes (mt) as of April 15, may now find support due to continued mill operations and improved recovery rates.
According to the Indian Sugar and Bio-Energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA), about 22 factories in UP remain operational and are likely to continue crushing until early May. Enhanced cane yield and availability are key contributors to this extended activity. ISMA also highlighted that recovery has improved since April, further supporting output levels.
Despite nationwide closures—496 out of 534 mills have shut down—UP’s continued operations provide a cushion. Maharashtra, the second-largest sugar producer, has only one operational mill, which will close by mid-May.
In parallel, ISMA noted that nearly 3.5 mt of sugar will be diverted towards ethanol production this season, a significant rise from 2.15 mt in 2023–24. Additionally, southern states like Karnataka and Tamil Nadu are expected to contribute 0.4–0.5 mt of sugar in the upcoming special season starting June/July.
Looking ahead, ISMA has projected a bullish outlook for the 2025–26 season. Supported by a favorable 2024 monsoon and improved sugarcane planting in Maharashtra and Karnataka, the upcoming season is expected to start on time in October 2025. Ongoing varietal replacements in UP and northern states are also promising better yields and sugar recovery.
Finally
While this season faced setbacks, UP’s extended crushing and improved yields offer short-term relief, with long-term optimism hinging on favorable planting and varietal improvements.
