The USDA reduced its forecast for 2025-’26 soybean oil use in biofuel production in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released Jan. 12. The forecast price for soybean oil was unchanged.
The currently 2025-’26 outlook for soybean production is estimated at 4.3 billion bushels, up 9 million, led by increases for Kansas, Kentucky and Minnesota. Harvested area is estimated at 80.4 million acres, up 100,000 acres. Yield is unchanged from December at 53 bushels per acre.
The U.S. soybean supply for 2025-’26 is raised 17 million bushels on higher beginning stocks and production. Soybean crush for 2025-’26 is raised 15 million bushels to 2.57 billion bushels on higher soybean meal domestic disappearance and exports. Soybean meal and soybean oil extraction rates are also revised based on early-season data.
The USDA now expects 14.8 billion pounds of soybean oil to go to biofuel production for 2025-’26, down from the December outlook of 15.5 billion pounds. The agency attributed the decrease to lower-than-expected use to date and strong use of tallow as a feedstock in recent months. The USDA maintained its estimate that 11.758 billion pounds of soybean oil went to biofuel production for 2024-’25, down from 12.995 billion for 2023-’24.
U.S. soybean exports are revised 60 million bushels lower to 1.575 billion on higher production and exports for Brazil. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 350 million bushels, up 60 million. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2025-’26 is projected at $10.20 per bushel, down 30 cents, reflecting reported USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service prices during the first quarter of the marketing year and expectations for future marketings and prices. The soybean meal price is forecast at $295 per short ton, down $5. The soybean oil price is unchanged at 53 cents per pound.
The 2025-’26 global soybean outlook includes higher production, increased crush, lower exports and higher ending stocks. Global soybean production is increased 3.1 million tons to 425.7 million, reflecting higher crops for Brazil and the U.S., but lower output for China. Brazil soybean production is raised 3 million tons to 178 million on beneficial weather conditions in the Center West during the peak of the growing season. Further, positive early-season conditions and consistent rainfall in the south of Brazil also bolsters yield prospects, especially compared to previous years when the region faced drought. Soybean crush and soybean meal exports are raised for Brazil and the U.S., and pairs with higher soybean meal imports for the European Union. EU soybean crush and soybean imports are lowered on higher imported soybean meal supplies.
Global soybean exports for 2025-’26 are reduced 100,000 tons to 187.6 million as higher exports for Brazil are offset by lower U.S. shipments. Global ending stocks are increased 2 million tons to 124.4 million, mainly on higher stocks for the U.S. and Brazil.
