US sugar stock rose 0.9% in pre-open trading today, reaching 14.96 cents per pound, as a convergence of weather-driven supply concerns and tightening global balance sheet forecasts pushed the contract to a six-week high for the fourth consecutive session. The primary catalyst is India’s monsoon crisis: sugar prices are climbing on concerns that weak rainfall will lower sugarcane yields in the world’s second-largest producer, with India’s Meteorological Department reporting cumulative monsoon rainfall running 42% below normal as of June 29, and the Earth Science Ministry warning the season could be the weakest in 11 years.
Adding to the bullish case, Brazil’s industry group Unica reported that 2026/27 Center-South sugar production through May totaled 6.838 MMT, down 2.0% year-on-year, as the share of cane crushed for ethanol surged to 58.38% from 49.91% the prior year — sharply reducing the volume of cane allocated to sugar. Separately, concerns that dry weather from a confirmed El Niño event could disrupt global production are providing additional upward pressure, with Japan’s Meteorological Agency having confirmed the pattern’s formation on June 17 and forecasters warning it is likely to curb rainfall across Brazil, India, and Thailand — the world’s three largest sugar-producing regions.
Multiple commodity analysts have already revised the 2026/27 global sugar balance toward deficit: the International Sugar Organization forecasts a shortfall of 262,000 MT, while StoneX projects a deficit of 550,000 MT and Covrig Analytics has cut its surplus estimate to just 100,000 MT. The July ICE contract also expired on June 30 with Cofco acting as the sole supplier of 796,500 tonnes, a delivery that has contributed to positioning shifts ahead of the October contract now in focus.
