The USDA increased its forecast for 2025-’26 corn use in ethanol in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released Aug. 12. The estimate for 2024-’25 corn use in ethanol was revised down.
The current 2025-’26 corn outlook is for sharply high supplies, greater domestic use and exports, and larger ending stocks. Projected beginning stocks for 2025-’26 are 35 million bushels lower based on a slightly higher use forecast for 2024-’25.
For 2024-’25, larger corn exports are partly offset by reductions in corn used for ethanol and glucose and dextrose.
Corn production for 2025-’26 is forecast a record 16.7 billion bushels, up 1 billion when compared to the July outlook, with a 1.9-millionacre increased in harvested area and higher yield. If realized, this total would be 1.4 billion bushels more than the prior record set in 2023-’24. The season’s first survey-based corn yield forecast, at a record 188.8 bushels per acre, is 7.8 bushels higher than last month’s projection. Sorghum production is forecast up 24 million bushels to 391 million. The yield is forecast at 69 bushels per acre, slightly above last month’s projection while harvested area is up 400,000 acres.
Total U.S. corn use for 2025-’26 is forecast 545 million bushels higher to 16 billion. Feed and residual use is raised 250 million bushels to 6.1 billion based on a larger crop and lower expected prices.
The USDA currently expects 5.6 billion bushels of corn to go to ethanol production for 2025-’26, up from the July forecast of 5.5 billion bushels. Th agency revised down its estimate for 2024-’25 corn use in ethanol to 5.47 billion bushels, down from estimate of 5.5 billion bushels made last month. Corn use for fuel ethanol production was at 5.478 billion bushels for 2023-’24.
Corn exports for 2025-’26 are raised 200 million bushels to a record 2.9 billion reflecting U.S. export competitiveness and expectations of relatively low world market prices. With supply rising more than use, ending stocks are up 457 million bushels to 2.1 billion and if realized would be the highest in absolute terms since 2018-’19. The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered 30 cents to $3.90 per bushel.
Foreign corn production is down reflecting cuts to the EU and Serbia that are partially offset by increases for Ukraine and Canada. For the EU and Serbia extreme heat and dryness in southeastern Europe during the month of July reduces yield prospects. Area is also lowered for the EU. Ukraine production is raised on greater area. Canada is higher reflecting an increase in yield expectations.
For 2025-’26, higher corn exports are expected for the United States and Ukraine, with reductions for Serbia and the EU. Corn imports are raised for Mexico, the EU, Egypt, Colombia, and Turkey but lowered for Canada. Foreign corn ending stocks are down, reflecting declines for China, Indonesia, and the EU that are partly offset by increases for Ukraine and Egypt. Global corn stocks, at 282.6 million tons, are up 10.4 million.
