The USDA maintained its outlook for 2025-’26 soybean oil use in biofuel production in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released Aug. 12. The forecast for soybean oil prices was also unchanged.
The 2025-’26 outlook for U.S. soybeans includes lower beginning stocks, production and ending stocks. Beginning stocks are lowered 20 million bushels on an increase to crush and exports in the prior marketing year. Soybean production for 2025-’26 is forecast at 4.3 billion bushels, down 43 million bushels on lower area partly offset by a higher yield. Harvested area is forecast at 80.1 million acres, down 2.4 million when compared to the July outlook. The first survey-based soybean yield forecast of 53.6 bushels per acre is up 1.1 bushels from last month. With lower supply and the slow pace of export sales to date, exports are reduced 40 million bushels. Crush is unchanged at 2.54 billion bushels. U.S. ending stocks are forecast at 290 million bushels, down 20 million from last month.
The USDA maintained its forecast that 15.5 billion pounds of soybean oil will go to biofuel production for 2025-’26. The agency also maintained its estimate for 2024-’25 soybean oil use in biofuel production at 12.25 billion pounds. Approximately 12.989 billion pounds of soybean oil went to biofuel production for 2023-’24.
The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2025-’26 is forecast unchanged at $10.10 per bushel. Soybean meal prices is forecast at $280 per short ton, down $10. The soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 53 cents per pound.
Global soybean supply and demand forecasts for 2025-‘26 include lower production, exports, and ending stocks. Global production for 2025-‘26 is lowered mainly on lower production for the U.S. and Serbia. Exports are reduced for the U.S. but raised for Argentina and Uruguay. Imports are reduced for the EU, Iran, and Vietnam. Global ending stocks are reduced 1.2 million tons to 124.9 million on lower stocks for Argentina, the EU, Iran, Vietnam, and the U.S.
