The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has lowered its forecast for Chinese soyabean production in 2026/27 to 20.1M tonnes due to a reduced planted area.
Chinese state-owned enterprises (SOEs) continued to purchase US soyabeans in accordance with an agreement with the US government, the USDA’s 4 September ‘China: Oilseeds and Products Update’ said.
As of 13 August, China had purchased 5.7M tonnes of US new crop soyabeans for delivery in 2026/27, with an additional 3.8M tonnes sold to “unknown destinations”, which could indicate purchases by Chinese SOEs, USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) export sales data showed.
Meanwhile, China’s current 10% retaliatory tariff on US soyabeans had led commercial buyers to rely on South American origins, with Brazil shipping record volumes from June-August 2026.
An increase in soyabean crushing for meal and declining demand for soyabean oil would push Chinese soybean oil exports to reach a record 1M tonnes in 2025/26, the report said.
China’s new crop soyabean planted area was expected to decline slightly compared with the previous marketing year, as farmers lacked adequate incentive to continue expanding cultivation, the USDA said.
“The core constraint remains an imbalance of expected profit margin compared to that of corn, even with subsidies,” the USDA explained.
The China Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimate (CASDE) August report forecast total soyabean planted area to fall to 10.19M ha, down 0.7% year-on-year while production would remain at 20.95M tonnes – almost unchanged from the previous year – due to an expected higher average yield.
However, a leading industry source forecast a 2.1% growth in planted area and a 3.3% increase in soyabean production in 2026/27.
