SINGAPORE/BEIJING/SAO PAULO, Jan 27 (Reuters) - China is expected to boost imports of Brazilian soybeans in the first half of 2026, as record production and competitive prices propel shipments, reinforcing South America's dominance in the world's biggest oilseed importer, even as U.S. supplies return.
Private soybean processors in China are locking in deals for Brazilian soybeans to be shipped from February onwards as the harvest gathers pace, swelling supplies and squeezing prices, trade sources said.
Such activity could hit demand for U.S. cargoes when the North American export season begins in September.
Purchases of about 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans following a thaw in ties between Beijing and Washington since late October were made entirely by state-owned Sinograin and COFCO, as higher U.S. prices sidelined private traders.
Even if Beijing orders more purchases by state-run grain traders and stockpiler Sinograin to meet trade deal commitments to Washington, China's 13% tariff on U.S. soybeans makes them costlier for private crushers than Brazilian supplies facing a duty of 3%.
"China's current purchase volumes of U.S. soybeans are limited, sufficient only to maintain a positive political atmosphere ahead of the April meeting between the two countries' leaders," said Dan Wang, China director at Eurasia Group, a global political risk consultancy.
"If the April meeting yields further tariff reductions and certain assurances on the Taiwan issue, China may commit to soybean purchases, but volumes are likely to remain limited."
Crush margins for Brazilian soybeans shipped between March and June remain favourable to clinch deals, traders and analysts told Reuters.
"We will probably see higher exports (from Brazil) to China in the period from March to June, higher than last year," said a trader for a large global company. "Brazil's soybeans are way cheaper than U.S. soy in this period."
All the sources spoke on condition of anonymity as the matter is a sensitive one.
Earlier, the market had expected China's purchases of Brazilian soybeans to decline this year, as it bought U.S. cargoes.
EXPENSIVE U.S. SOYBEANS
Chinese state-owned firms have bought about 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans since late October, fulfilling a U.S.-stated pledge, but volumes remain well below China's purchases of roughly 23 million tons in the 2024/25 crop year.
