Those corn acres that USDA added in January? They expect them to drop off farmers' plans for Plant ‘26.
USDA blindsided the industry when it finalized 2025 planted acreage at a gargantuan 98.8 million acres. The last time that happened was way back in the Dust Bowl era of 1936.
Most analysts think this mammoth footprint is unlikely to see a repeat in 2026. USDA now officially agrees with that assessment after releasing its Grains and Oilseeds Outlook today at the agency’s 102nd Annual Agricultural Outlook Forum.
“The big story here is the swap between corn and soybean acres,” said USDA Chief Economist Justin Benavidez. “This year, we’re trending more to the soybean side, getting back to around the 10-year average.”
In fact, USDA projects 2026 corn plantings will stumble 4.8 million acres lower to 94 million acres. It’s too early to project yields with much accuracy, but USDA put its initial estimate at 183 bushels per acre, which “assumes normal planting progress and summer growing season weather.” That would lead to a production of approximately 15.8 billion bushels – a year-over-year decline of 7%, if realized.
Deja vu?
The report, as always, is USDA’s first comprehensive assessment of the upcoming crop year. Though closely-watched, the acreage forecasts and other estimates aren’t based on farmer surveys and can vary significantly from final numbers as the industry saw in 2025. Today’s numbers are eerily similar to a year ago.
At the 2025 Outlook Forum, USDA predicted 2025 corn plantings at 94 million acres with an average nationwide yield at 181 bushels per acre. Production was projected at 15.59 billion bushels.
In final numbers released Jan. 12, those estimates proved to be significantly low. USDA reported farmers planted 98.79 million acres to corn and reaped a record 17.02 billion-bushel harvest behind a record 186.5 bushels per acre average yield.
“For what it’s worth,” StoneX’s Matt Zeller said, the numbers are about what the trade expected, with corn offering a slightly bullish nuance.
“Soybean planted acreage was roughly steady with the trade estimate, while corn acreage was a million below the average expectation,” Zeller said.
Count Terrain economists in the “not surprised” category. USDA’s numbers align almost exactly with those estimated by Terrain, a team of ag economists who provide expert insights to the customers of several Farm Credit divisions.
Expect more soybean acres
In contrast, USDA expects to find almost 4 million more soybean acres this season, with farmers planting 85 million acres. “Assuming normal weather conditions, yields are expected to average 53 bushels per acre, leading to a 188-million-bushel increase in production to 4.45 billion bushels,” according to USDA’s report.
How does farmer and/or market sentiment factor into these decisions? On the one hand, farmers may be spooked by oversupply concerns from last year’s 17-billion-bushel corn crop. On the other hand, lingering concerns about U.S.-China trade relations could cool the desire to put more soybeans in the ground this season.
A look at current corn-to-soybean price ratios is equally unhelpful at this time. As of Feb. 18, that ratio was 2.51. Many farmers tend to lean toward soybeans when the ratio is above 2.6, while a ratio below 2.5 favors corn.
Pour corn or beans in planters?
But some of this season’s planting decisions come down to simple agronomics, according to Tanner Ehmke, lead grains and oilseeds economist with CoBank.
“Beyond price signals, crop rotation needs will also play a role,” he said. “Following a big year for corn in 2025 in which acres climbed to the highest level in decades, more corn acres will be available to rotate to soybeans. And with record supplies of corn in storage, farmers will look to rotate into other crops to diversify their marketing risk. Soybeans currently offer the best marketing opportunities.”
From the corn perspective, Terrain’s outlook report for 2026 leans heavily into demand.
“Exports remain a key variable, but corn prices near $4/bu. should support global demand,” according to the Terrain report. “Argentina, Brazil, Ukraine and the U.S. account for about 90% of global corn exports. The combined stocks‑to‑use ratio for Argentina, Brazil and Ukraine has fallen to 4.7%, the lowest since 1983-84. This tightening suggests large‑volume importers may rely more on the U.S. in 2026-27.”
Lower global supplies and heavier demand ultimately offer a better outlook for prices – and farmers. Whether that will happen depends on two variables, according to the Terrain outlook, which projects U.S. ending stocks for 2026-27 above 1.9 billion bushels.
“With ample inventories, our projected average farm price is $4.33/bu., favorable for buyers,” Terrain wrote. “Two wild cards are better-than-expected demand strengthening or weather reducing supply.”
