The U.S. Energy Information Administration maintained its forecasts for 2025 and 2026 fuel ethanol production in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released Oct. 7. The 2025 and 2026 forecasts for fuel ethanol blending and exports were also unchanged.
The EIA currently expects fuel ethanol production to average 1.06 million barrels per day this year and next year, unchanged from the September STEO. Fuel ethanol production also averaged 1.06 million barrels per day in 2024.
On a quarterly basis, the EIA currently expects fuel ethanol production to average 1.05 million barrels per day during the fourth quarter of 2025. Moving into 2026, fuel ethanol production is expected to average 1.05 million barrels per day in the first quarter, 1.07 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 1.05 million barrels per day in the third quarter and 1.08 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.
Net imports of fuel ethanol are expected to average -130,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 2026, unchanged from both 2024 and the September STEO.
Fuel ethanol blending is expected to average 930,000 barrels per day this year and next year, unchanged when compared to both 2024 and last month’s outlook.
