The U.S. Energy Information Administration maintained its forecasts for 2025 and 2026 renewable diesel and biodiesel production in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released Oct. 7. The production outlook for “other” biofuels, which includes sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), was also unchanged.
The EIA currently expects renewable diesel production to average 200,000 barrels per day this year and 260,000 barrels per day next year, unchanged when compared to the September STEO. Renewable diesel production was at 210,000 barrels per day last year.
The agency maintained its forecast that net imports of renewable diesel will average -30,000 barrels per day in 2025, but now expects net imports of renewable diesel to average -40,000 barrels per day next year, compared to the -30,000 barrel per day forecast made last month. Net imports of renewable diesel averaged 30,000 barrels per day in 2024.
Renewable diesel consumption is expected to average 170,000 barrels per day in 2026, expanding to 220,000 barrels per day in 2026. Both forecasts were maintained from the September STEO. Renewable diesel consumption was at 240,000 barrels per day last year.
The EIA maintained its forecasts that biodiesel production will average 80,000 barrels per day this year, expanding to 90,000 barrels per day next year. Biodiesel production was at 110,000 barrels per day in 2024.
Net imports of biodiesel are expected to be at zero in both 2025 and 2026, unchanged from last month’s outlook. Net imports of biodiesel averaged 20,000 barrels per day last year.
Biodiesel consumption is expected to average 80,000 barrels per day this year and 90,000 barrels per day next year. Both forecasts were maintained from the September STEO. Biodiesel consumption averaged 130,000 barrels per day last year.
Production of “other” biofuels, which is defined to include renewable heating oil, renewable jet fuel, including SAF and biojet, renewable naphtha, renewable gasoline and other emerging biofuels that are in various stages of development and commercialization, is expected to average 40,000 barrels per day this year and 50,000 barrels per day next year. Both forecasts were unchanged when compared to last month. Production of “other” biofuels was at 20,000 barrels per day last year.
Net imports of “other” biofuels is expected to be zero in both 2025 and 2026, unchanged from both 2024 and the September STEO forecast.
The EIA maintained its forecast that consumption of “other” biofuels will average 40,000 barrels per day this year and 50,000 barrels per day next year, up from 20,000 barrels per day in 2024.
