The U.S. Energy Information Administration reduced its 2025 and 2026 production forecasts for a category of biofuels that includes sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released June 10. The forecast for 2025 renewable diesel production was also revised down, but the outlook for 2025 biodiesel production was maintained.
The EIA currently expects production for “other biofuels,” a category that includes renewable heating oil, renewable jet fuel (including SAF, alternative jet fuel, and biojet), renewable naphtha, renewable gasoline and other emerging biofuels that are in various stages of development and commercialization, to average 40,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 50,000 barrels per day in 2026, down from last month’s respective forecasts of 50,000 barrels per day and 60,000 barrels per day. Production of “other biofuels” was at 20,000 barrels per day last year.
Net imports for “other biofuels” were at zero last year and are expected to remain at that level in both 2025 and 2026.
Consumption of “other biofuels” is currently expected to average 40,000 barrels per day this year and 50,000 barrels per day next year, down from the May STEO’s forecasts of 50,000 barrels per day and 60,000 barrel per day, respectively.
The EIA currently expects renewable diesel production to average 210,000 barrels per day in 2025, down from last month’s forecast of 220,000 barrels per day. The agency maintained its forecast that renewable diesel production will average 250,000 barrels per day in 2026. Renewable diesel production was at 210,000 barrels per day last year.
Net imports of renewable diesel are currently expected to average -10,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 2026. In its May STEO, the EIA precited net imports of renewable diesel would be at zero this year and next year. Net imports of renewable diesel averaged 30,000 barrels per day last year.
Renewable diesel consumption is currently expected to average 200,000 barrels per day in 2025, down from last month’s outlook of 210,000 barrels per day. The EIA also revised down its forecast for 2026 renewable diesel consumption to 230,000 barrels per day, compared the May STEO forecast of 250,000 barrels per day. Renewable diesel consumption was at 240,000 barrels per day in 2024.
Biodiesel production is currently expected to average 90,000 barrels per day this year and 100,000 barrels per day next year. Both forecasts were maintained from the May STEO. biodiesel production averaged 110,000 barrels per day last year.
Net imports of biodiesel were at 20,000 barrels per day in 2024 and are currently expected to be at zero in both 2025 and 2026, unchanged from last month’s forecast.
The EIA maintained its forecasts that biodiesel consumption will average 90,000 barrels per day this year and 100,000 barrels per day next year, down from 120,000 barrels per day in 2024.
