India’s oil production is expected to improve, and its biofuel industry is set to be a major success, according to Amrita Sen, Founder & Director of Research at Energy Aspects. She highlighted ethanol as India's biggest success story but remains sceptical about green hydrogen due to its high cost.
Sen also stated the importance of nuclear energy in the energy transition. “Nuclear, if you are serious about energy transition, you have to be serious about nuclear. I understand it is a very complicated topic, but even solar, and you are going to see a lot of solar kind of investments here as well,” she said.
On global oil supply, Sen said that the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) still has spare capacity, ensuring sufficient supply in case of disruptions.
She also expressed concerns about sanctions on Iran and Russia. “Should they kind of get enforced? That could be a lot of kind of bad news for refiners in India who are already struggling with the higher price of heavy crude oil.”
Discussing oil demand, Sen said that while China’s demand is stronger than last year, it is unlikely to return to peak levels. “Oil demand growth, on average, used to be 1.2-1.4 million barrels per day,” she added.
Looking ahead, she expects the oil market to tighten towards the end of the decade, especially if US production growth slows. “But I am talking more towards the end of this decade. I think that is when you start to see the tightening, especially if the US production growth is flatlining.”
