Kedia Advisory - India’s rice reserves in government warehouses jumped 15% year-on-year to a record 55.66 million metric tons as of July 1, far above the official target. Wheat stocks also rose to 35.9 million tons, a four-year high, driven by strong farmer procurement. These abundant supplies are expected to help stabilize domestic prices and boost rice exports by an estimated 25% to a record 22.5 million tons in 2025. Improved inventories come after years of tight supplies and high prices, easing fears of wheat imports. With no export curbs, India’s rice exports may further relieve surplus stocks.
Key Highlights:
• India’s rice stocks rose 15% year-on-year to a record 55.66 million tons.
• Wheat reserves climbed to 35.9 million tons, highest since 2021.
• Robust farmer procurement drove wheat stocks to exceed targets.
• Rice exports projected to surge 25% to a record 22.5 million tons.
• Ample stocks will help control prices and avert wheat imports.
India’s rice and wheat inventories have surged to multi-year highs, offering much-needed relief for domestic markets and export prospects. According to official data, rice stocks in government warehouses rose by 15% from a year ago to 55.66 million metric tons as of July 1—far surpassing the seasonal target of 13.5 million tons. Wheat reserves also improved significantly, reaching 35.9 million tons, their highest level since 2021 and comfortably above the government’s 27.6 million ton goal.
The healthy stock levels come after three years of disappointing harvests and reduced procurement, which had pushed prices higher and fueled speculation about possible wheat imports. However, this year’s strong wheat procurement of 29.9 million tons—the most in four years—has replenished stocks, easing domestic supply worries and stabilizing prices.
The rice inventories are “alarmingly high” and even increased exports would only marginally reduce the surplus. India, which accounts for about 40% of global rice exports, removed the last of its export restrictions in March 2025. As a result, the Rice Exporters Association forecasts rice shipments to jump by nearly 25% to a record 22.5 million tons this year, helping to absorb excess stocks.
For wheat, improved supplies mean the government can use open market sales to curb any sudden price spikes later this year. Overall, the record stockpile positions India strongly to meet domestic demand while capitalizing on global market opportunities.
In conclusion, ample rice and wheat reserves will help India balance domestic needs, prevent price shocks, and maintain its dominance in global rice exports.
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