The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture on June 12, saw few changes to the United States corn and soybeans balance sheets (and none to soybeans) with little impact on new crop ending stocks.
However, the WASDE did revise U.S. wheat ending stocks downward due to increased export projections, a result that cheered some analysts; one called it the best export start for wheat in 12 years. Globally, the report lowered ending stocks for both corn and wheat.
The outlook for 2025-26 U.S. wheat this month was for slightly larger supplies, unchanged domestic use, higher exports, and lower ending stocks. Supplies were raised on minimally higher output as all wheat production is projected at 1.921 billion bushels, up 115,000 bushels from last month as higher soft red winter and white winter production offset lower hard red winter production.
The all-wheat yield was virtually unchanged at 51.6 bushels per acre. Exports were raised by 25 million bushels to 825 million on strong early 2025-26 sales, especially for HRW. Projected 2025-26 ending stocks were lowered by 25 million bushels to 898 million bushels, but were kept at 7% above last year. The projected 2025-26 season-average farm price is $0.10 per bushel higher at $5.40 a bushel on the reduced stocks.
The June 2025-26 global wheat outlook was for reduced supplies, higher consumption and trade, and lower ending stocks. Supplies were projected down 1.2 million tons to 1,072.6 million tons, mainly on reduced beginning stocks for Russia more than offsetting higher production for the EU and India. EU production was raised to 136.6 million tons on improved conditions in Spain compared to last year.
India’s production was raised to a record 117.5 million tons on the Government’s Third Advanced Estimate. Global consumption was raised 1.8 million tons to 809.8 million tons, mainly on higher food, seed and industrial use for Nigeria, Sudan and India.
World trade was 1.3 million tons higher at 214.3 million tons on increased exports for the U.S. and the EU. Projected 2025-26 global ending stocks were lowered by 3 million tons to 262.8 million tons on reductions for Russia, the U.S., Iraq, and Turkey.
Corn little changed
The 2025-26 U.S. corn outlook was little changed from the previous month, albeit with lower beginning and ending stocks. Corn area and yield forecasts are unchanged. USDA will release its acreage report on June 30, which will provide survey-based indications of planted and harvested area.
Beginning stocks were down 50 million bushels, reflecting a forecast increase in exports for 2024-25. Exports were raised 50 million bushels, based on reported U.S. Census Bureau shipments through the month of April, inspection data during May and current outstanding sales. With no use changes for 2025-26, ending stocks were lowered by a million bushels to 1.8 billion bushels. The season-average farmgate price received by producers remained unchanged at $4.20 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2025-26 was forecast 1.2 million tons higher to 1.551 billion tons. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook was for larger production and trade, and smaller ending stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production was higher with an increase for India.
For 2024-25, corn exports were lowered for Argentina but raised for the U.S. and Canada. Corn imports were lowered for China and Canada with increases for Turkey, Indonesia, and Iraq. Foreign corn ending stocks for 2025-26 were reduced, with cuts to China, South Africa, India, and Canada partially offset by an increase for Argentina. Global corn ending stocks, at 275.2 million tons, were down by 2.6 million.
Soybeans unchanged
U.S. 2025-26 soybean supply, use and price projections remained unchanged as markets waited to see what progress might be made in trade talks between the U.S. and China. The U.S. season-average soybean price was forecast at $10.25 per bushel; soybean meal and oil prices were projected at $310 per short ton and 46 cents per pound, respectively.
Global soybean supply and demand forecasts for 2025-26 included higher beginning stocks, unchanged production, slightly higher crush, and higher ending stocks. Beginning stocks were raised on a 1-million-ton reduction to crush for China in the prior marketing year, guided by the slower-than-expected reported weekly pace to date. Crush for 2025-26 was raised 0.1 million tons on higher use by Pakistan, South Africa, and the United Kingdom.
With exports unchanged, global ending stocks were raised by 1 million tons to 125.3 million, mainly on higher stocks for China. Another notable revision was higher palm oil production for Malaysia for 2024-25 and 2025-26 based on an expected recovery after widespread flooding affected operations earlier in the year.
