The USDA maintained its forecast for 2025-’26 soybean oil use in biofuel production in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released June 12. The estimate for 2024-’25 soybean use in biofuel production was revised down.
The current outlook for 2025-’26 soybean supply, use and prices is unchanged when compared to last month. Season-average soybean prices are forecast at $10.25 per bushel, with soybean meal prices projected at $310 per short ton and soybean oil prices expected to average 46 cents per pound.
The USDA is scheduled to release its annual Acreage report on June 30, which will provide survey-based indications of planted and harvested area.
The USDA maintained its forecast that soybean oil use in biofuel production will average 13.9 billion pounds for 2025-’26. The agency now estimates 12.9 billion pounds of soybean oil went to biofuel production for 2024-’25, down from last month’s estimate of 13.1 billion pounds. Approximately 12.989 billion pounds of soybean oil went to biofuel production for 2023-’24.
According to the USDA, global soybean supply and demand forecasts for 2025-‘26 include higher beginning stocks, unchanged production, slightly higher crush, and higher ending stocks. Beginning stocks are raised on a 1-million-ton reduction to crush for China in the prior marketing year, guided by the slower-than-expected reported weekly pace to date. Crush for 2025-‘26 is raised 100,000 tons on higher use by Pakistan, South Africa, and the U.K. With exports unchanged, global ending stocks are raised 1 million tons to 125.3 million, mainly on higher stocks for China.
