KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysian palm oil stocks are expected to edge down one per cent month-on-month (MoM) to 2.78 million tonnes in February, compared with a decline of more than seven per cent in January, which saw stronger-than expected exports.
CIMB Securities Sdn Bhd said the marginal drop in February stocks is mainly due to an expected 20 per cent MoM decline in exports, partly because of fewer working days, which is likely to more than offset lower output.
"According to Amspec, palm oil exports fell 10.5 per cent MoM to 451,340 tonnes in the first 10 days of February," it said in a research note.
The firm said palm oil production is forecast to fall eight per cent MoM to 1.45 million tonnes in February, compared with a 13.8 per cent decline to 1.58 million tonnes in January, due largely to seasonal factors.
In January, palm oil stocks fell 7.7 per cent MoM but rose 78.2 per cent year-on-year (YoY)to 2.82 million tonnes, marking the first monthly decline since February 2025.
"This was lower than both our forecast of 2.90 million tonnes and market consensus, mainly due to stronger-than-expected exports and domestic disappearance, as well as lower production," it said.
CIMB Securities said the average crude palm oil (CPO) price slipped 0.6 per cent MoM to RM4,018 per tonne in January, broadly in line with its 2026 CPO price forecast of RM4,000 per tonne.
On a YoY basis, January palm oil production rose 27.2 per cent, the highest January output since 2019, and was 24 per cent above the five-year January average of 1.27 million tonnes. This was supported by stronger fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yields in Kelantan, Pahang and Sabah.
"National FFB yield rose to 1.39 tonnes per hectare in January 2026, 14.3 per cent above the five-year January average of 1.22 tonnes per hectare," it added.
The firm said CPO prices strengthened in late January despite elevated palm oil stocks, Indonesia's move to delay the B50 mandate and a firmer ringgit.
CIMB Securities maintained an "Overweight" call on the plantation sector, citing land monetisation as a key catalyst.
