In the June World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has revised downward the world cotton balance sheet for the 2025–26 marketing year. World production is reduced by over 800,000 bales, as a 1-million-bale increase for China is more than offset by declines in India, the United States, and Pakistan. Global cotton production is now projected at 116.99 million bales, compared to 117.81 million bales in the May report.
Global cotton consumption for 2025–26 is reduced by more than 300,000 bales to 117.76 million bales. Although consumption is expected to rise in Egypt, it is more than offset by reductions in India, Turkiye, and Bangladesh, with minor changes in other countries. Global exports are lowered by 40,000 bales, with largely offsetting revisions in trade.
Beginning stocks for 2025–26 are cut by over 1.1 million bales to 77.29 million bales, primarily due to a 1-million-bale reduction in India’s 2024–25 crop. Consequently, global ending stocks for 2025–26 are reduced by nearly 1.6 million bales to 76.80 million bales, reflecting both the lower beginning stocks and a larger drop in production than in consumption.
The US cotton balance sheet for 2025–26 is also revised to reflect lower production, beginning stocks, and ending stocks, while consumption, imports, and exports remain unchanged from last month. Harvested area is reduced by 2 per cent to 8.19 million acres due to excessive rainfall and delayed planting in the Delta region.
The national average yield for 2025–26 is lowered by more than 1 per cent from last month to 820 pounds per harvested acre, also due to adverse conditions in the Delta. As a result, the production forecast is reduced by 500,000 bales to 14 million bales—below the 14.4 million bales produced in 2024–25—marking the second smallest crop in the past decade.
Beginning stocks for 2025–26 are reduced by 400,000 bales following an increase in projected exports for 2024–25. As a result, ending stocks for 2025–26 are lowered by 900,000 bales to 4.3 million bales, with a stocks-to-use ratio of 30.3 per cent.
The projected season-average price for 2025–26 remains unchanged this month at 62 cents per pound.
