The chief commodities economist at StoneX Group says that biofuel policy and a potential trade deal with China could significantly influence what U.S. farmers decide to plant — possibly more soybeans and fewer corn acres — even if those effects don’t show up in the USDA’s official planting intention surveys.
Arlan Suderman notes that the Trump administration’s final biofuel blending requirements and an anticipated China trade agreement are expected after the USDA’s survey cutoff. If China buys another 8 million metric tons of soybeans, farmers would likely want to plant more soybean acres than just the roughly four million more currently expected. If not, the shift toward soybeans may be smaller.
Suderman also says crop insurance changes could favor corn planting — provided farmers have enough operating revenue for input costs. Weather remains a key variable.
According to USDA Prospective Plantings projections ahead of that survey, U.S. corn acreage is expected to fall to about 94 million acres (down ~4.8 million from last year) while soybean acreage could rise to about 85 million acres.
