The U.S. Energy Information Administration maintained its forecasts for 2026 renewable diesel and biodiesel production in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released Nov. 12. The 2026 outlook for “other” biofuel production, which includes sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), was reduced.
The EPA currently predicts renewable diesel production will average 200,000 barrels per day this year and 260,000 barrels per day next year. Both forecasts were maintained from the October STEO. Renewable diesel production averaged 210,000 barrels per day in 2024.
The agency maintained its forecast that net imports of renewable diesel for 2025 will average -30,000 barrels per day. The agency now predicts net imports of renewable diesel will remain at -30,000 barrels per day next year, compared to the October forecast of -40,000 barrels per day.
Renewable diesel consumption is expected to average 170,000 barrels per day this year and 220,000 barrels per day next year, unchanged from the previous outlook. Renewable diesel consumption was at 240,000 barrels per day in 2024.
Biodiesel production is currently expected to average 80,000 barrels per day this year, increasing to 90,000 barrels per day next year. Both forecasts were maintained from the October STEO. Biodiesel production averaged 110,000 barrels per day last year.
Net imports of biodiesel are expected to be at zero in both 2025 and 2026, unchanged from last month’s outlook. Net imports of biodiesel were at 20,000 barrels per day in 2024.
The EIA maintained its forecasts that biodiesel consumption will average 80,000 barrels per day this year and 90,000 barrels per day next year. Biodiesel consumption was at 130,000 barrels per day last year.
The production of “other” biofuels, defined to include renewable heating oil; renewable jet fuel, including SAF, alternative jet fuel and biojet; renewable naphtha, renewable gasoline and other emerging biofuels that are in various stages of development and commercialization, is expected to average 40,000 barrels per day in 2025, unchanged from last month’s outlook. The EIA now predicts the production of “other” biofuel will be maintained at 40,000 barrels per day in 2026, down from the October outlook of 50,000 barrels per day.
Net imports of “other” biofuels are expected to be at zero this year and next year, unchanged from last month’s forecast. Net imports of “other” biofuels were at zero in 2024.
The consumption of “other” biofuels is expected to average 40,000 barrels per day this year, unchanged from the October STEO. The EIA now expects the consumption of “other” biofuels to average 40,000 barrels per day in 2026, down from last month’s outlook of 50,000 barrels per day. Consumption of “other” biofuels was at 20,000 barrels per day last year.
