The USDA maintained its forecast for 2025-’26 soybean oil use in biofuel production in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released Nov. 14. The estimate for 2024-’25 soybean use in biofuel production was reduced.
The USDA currently predicts 2025-’26 soybean production will reach 4.3 billion bushels, down 48 million on lower yields. The soybean yield is projected down 0.5 bushels to 53 bushels per acre. Soybean suppliers are projected to be 61 million bushels lower than the September forecast, due to lower beginning stocks from the Sept. 30 Grian Stocks report and reduced production.
U.S. soybean exports are forecast at 1.64 billion bushels, down 50 million from the previous forecast due to lower supplies and higher exports by Brazil and Argentina. In September, Argentina temporarily reduced export taxes leading to an influx of export registrations during the peak U.S. export season. Further, since the last report, the U.S. entered a trade deal with China, which led to higher U.S. prices and narrowed the price spread between U.S. and other major exporters. While U.S. soybean exports are expected to rise to China for the rest of the marketing year, these higher shipments could be offset by reductions to other markets where the U.S. no longer holds a large price discount compared to other exporters.
The forecast for U.S. soybean crush is unchanged and ending stocks are forecast down marginally. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2025-‘26 is raised 50 cents to $10.50 per bushel. The soybean meal price is raised $20 to $300 per short ton. The soybean oil price is unchanged at 53 cents per pound.
The USDA currently predicts 15.5 billion pounds of soybean oil will go to biofuel production for 2025-’26, unchanged from the September forecast. The agency did not publish a WASDE report for October due to the government shutdown.
The USDA reduced its estimate for 2024-’25 soybean oil use in biofuel production to 11.9 billion pounds, down from the estimate of 12.25 billion pounds made in September. Soybean oil use in biofuel production was at 12.995 billion pounds for 2023-’24.
Global oilseed production for 2025-‘26 is lowered this month mainly on lower soybean and sunflower production partly offset by higher rapeseed and cottonseed. Soybean production is reduced 4.1 million tons on lower output for the U.S., Ukraine, and India.
The global 2025-‘26 soybean supply and demand forecast includes lower beginning stocks and production, reduced crush, slightly higher exports, and lower ending stocks. Beginning stocks are lowered 200,000 tons due to updates to 2024-‘25 balance sheets. Ending stocks for 2024-‘25 are lowered for the U.S., the EU, and Argentina but higher for Brazil and China. EU ending stocks are lowered due to higher crush. Argentina’s 2024-‘25 balance sheet shows higher exports and crush leading to lower stocks. Brazil’s 2024-‘25 balance sheet includes higher production, increased 2.5 million tons to 171.5 million, reflecting estimates by CONAB and utilization data to date. As a result of reported data to date, Brazil’s 2024-‘25 crush, exports, and ending stocks are raised. China’s 2024-‘25 ending stocks are increased due to higher imports that are partly offset by higher crush.
Global soybean crush for 2025-‘26 is reduced 1.7 million tons to 365.0 million. Crush is reduced for India on the lower crop. Crush is reduced for Argentina on lower supplies due to lower beginning stocks and higher exports. Partly offsetting is a 1-million-ton increase to Brazilian crush to 59 million tons, raised in line with the higher crush estimate for the previous marketing year.
Global soybean exports for 2025-‘26 are increased 200,000 tons to 188 million. Exports are raised 500,000 tons for Brazil and 2.3 million for Argentina, in line with increases in the previous marketing year and large export registrations to date; mostly offsetting are lower shipments for the U.S. and Ukraine. Global ending stocks are reduced 2 million tons to 122 million, with lower stocks for Argentina, Brazil, the U.S., the EU, Ukraine, and India partly offset by higher stocks for China.
