Friday capped off the month of February, which turned out to be exceptionally kind to grain prices. A widespread round of technical buying occurred today. Winter wheat prices led the charge, with some contracts jumping more than 3% higher as traders continue to assess overly dry conditions across the U.S. Plains and ongoing geopolitical concerns in the Black Sea region. Corn prices improved by more than 1%, meantime, with soybeans trading 0.5% to 0.75% higher.
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A band of showers stretching from eastern Kansas through Kentucky could deliver another 0.25” to 0.75” or more to some fields between Saturday and Tuesday, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. Later on, NOAA’s new 8-to-14-day outlook predicts seasonally wet conditions for the Midwest and Plains between March 6 and March 12, with warmer-than-normal temperatures also likely for the central U.S. during this time.
On Wall St., the Dow stumbled 695 points lower in afternoon trading to 48,803 on lingering concerns that continued AI development could negatively affect certain industries and eventually the entire economy. Energy futures jumped higher, in contrast, with crude oil climbing 3% and approaching $73 per barrel. Gasoline futures improved more than 1.25%. The U.S. Dollar softened moderately.
Corn prices cap off a friendly February
Prices had a decent run in February, with May ’26 futures opening the month at $4.3625 and closing the month 12 cents above that level. That’s a monthly gain of 2.71%. Today, May futures rose 5 cents to $4.4850, with July futures up 4.75 cents to $4.56.
Private exporters announced to USDA the sale of 10.1 million bushels of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2025-26 marketing year, which began September 1.
The latest U.S. Drought Monitor report, out yesterday and covering the week through February 24, shows persistent drought in parts of the Midwest and South. In the southern region (covering Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Tennessee), 94.2% of that area is suffering from some level of drought. That’s substantially above year-ago levels of 55.8%. And 62.4% of the Midwest is facing overly dry conditions. Widespread seasonally wet weather expected over the next two weeks should bring some relief to these areas ahead of planting season.
Earlier this week, USDA announced an initiative titled “One Farmer, One File” that seeks to modernize how farmers access USDA programs and services. The initiative hopes to streamline the USDA system by creating one unified record for each farmer. For example, farmers won’t need to duplicate their efforts across FSA, NRCS, RMA and USDA agencies. It will also help farmers more easily access capital, disaster recovery system, conservation programs and more.
Speaking at the 2026 Commodity Classic, U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins said the agency will prioritize five areas of focus – deregulation, trade deals, lowering input costs, expanding domestic biofuel markets and creating a stronger farm safety net. “I wish you all knew how much E15 has been discussed in the Oval Office and the Capitol,” she said at one point of her talk. Farm Progress policy editor dug into the details in his most recent reporting – click here to learn more.
South Korean importers purchased a total of 7.9 million bushels of corn, likely sourced from the United States, South America or Ukraine, in a tender that closed earlier today. The grain is likely for shipment between March and May.
Corn settlements on Thursday were for 515,924 contracts.
Soybean prices captured moderate end-of-week gains
February gave prices a sweet deal overall. May ’26 futures started the month at $10.76 and rose nearly 90 cents higher by the end of the month. That’s a difference of +8.44%! Today, a round of technical buying helped May futures move another 7.2 cents higher to $11.7075, with July futures up 6.5 cents to $11.8275.
The rest of the soy complex was lightly mixed. May soymeal futures eased 0.12% lower, while May soyoil futures inched 0.15% higher.
Two groups have differing opinions when it comes to Brazil’s 2025-26 soybean production potential. Safras & Mercado lowered its estimate by almost 50 million bushels after offering a new projection of 6.531 billion bushels. In contrast, Rabobank upped its forecast by around 73.5 million bushels with a new estimate of 6.649 billion bushels. Both estimates would be a record-breaking result, if realized. Brazil is both the world’s No. 1 soybean producer and exporter.
Meantime, Brazil’s 2025-26 soybean harvest continues to push forward. According to a recent report from the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics, harvest was 65.7% complete in Mato Grosso, the top production state. That’s ahead of the prior five-year average, which is 57.2%. Nationwide harvest progress is around 40% to 45% complete so far.
Soybean settlements on Thursday were for 381,932 contracts.
Winter wheat prices grabbed double-digit gains
A round of technical buying and short-covering as prices moved steadily higher through most of Friday’s session. May Chicago SRW futures rose 17 cents to $5.9150, while May Kansas City HRW futures climbed 18.25 cents to $5.8050. May CBOT contracts have risen nearly 45 cents since the start of February.
New technology can assist our industry in multiple ways, but it can’t meet every agricultural need or overcome every crop production challenge. I took a closer look at four ways in particular when ag tech tends to miss the mark with farmers – click here to learn more.
French farm office FranceAgriMer reported that 84% of the country’s soft wheat crop is rated in good-to-excellent condition, which is a four-point drop from a week ago. Still, that tops year-ago ratings of 74% by a noticeable margin. France is Europe’s top grain producer and could see wheat output at around 1.285 billion bushels this season.
Saudi Arabia issued an international tender to purchase 24.1 million bushels of wheat from optional origins that closes today. The grain is likely for shipment between April and June.
Jordan issued an international tender to purchase up to 4.4 million bushels of milling wheat from optional origins that closes on March 3. The grain is likely for shipment in May and June.
CBOT wheat settlements on Thursday were for 121,194 contracts.
