Back Jun 26, 2025

How Much Lower Can Sugar Prices Go?

October world sugar futures (SBV25) present a selling opportunity on more price weakness.

See on the daily bar chart for October world sugar futures that prices are trending down and recently set a two-year low. The trend is the bears’ friend. See, too, at the bottom of the chart that the shorter-term moving averages I follow (9-day and 18-day) are in a bearish posture as the red 9-day is below the green 18-day and both lines are trending down. The sugar market bears have the firm near-term technical advantage to suggest still more downside price pressure in the near term.

Fundamentally, sugar futures prices have been declining due to increased global sugar production, including from major producers Brazil, India and Thailand, and the resulting potential for a global sugar surplus. 

A move in October world sugar futures below chart support at the June low of 16.20 cents would become a selling opportunity. The downside price objective would be 14.00 cents, or below. Technical resistance, for which to place a protective buy stop just above is located at 17.15 cents.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any trades and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 

Source: Barchart.com

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