KUALA LUMPUR (Feb 24): Palm oil is expected to remain rangebound in March as higher shipments that will shrink inventory are balanced out by a rising supply of substitutes, an industry council said on Tuesday (Feb 24).
Tightening supply, improving demand and firm US soybean oil prices may support palm oil at RM4,000 to RM4,300 per tonne in March, according to the Malaysian Palm Oil Council. However, ample global soybean supply and rising Chinese soybean oil exports may limit gains, the council noted.
“Palm oil prices are therefore projected to consolidate,” the council said.
Prices of the edible oil used in everything from infant formula to biodiesel have been hovering near the RM4,000 per tonne mark since the start of 2026. Latest data from Malaysia, the world’s largest palm oil producer after Indonesia, showed a decline in inventory for the first time in nearly a year.
Production seasonally fell 13.8% month-on-month to 1.58 million tonnes in January while exports rose 11.4% to 1.48 million tonnes, the second-highest monthly export volume in the past 12 months, thanks to stronger demand from India and Egypt.
November to February is typically the low season for the perennial crop due to fewer harvesting days and monsoon rains.
“Palm oil fundamentals are expected to gradually improve in the coming months,” the council said, noting that stronger Malaysian exports in the first quarter and Indonesia’s front-loading of shipments ahead of the March export levy hike would reduce palm oil inventories in both countries.
On the demand side, India is expected to shift consumption back toward palm oil following improved price competitiveness since late 2025, the council said.
Palm oil consumption in India is projected to rise by 800,000 tonnes in 2026 and the latest available January 2026 data already reflected this shift, the council highlighted, as India’s palm oil imports climbed to a four-month high while soybean oil imports fell to an 11-month low.
